Monday saw a record-breaking daily fall in the Iranian stock market, a clear sign that the domestic elite has lost confidence in the regime’s ability to survive. The announcement of the USS Abraham Lincoln’s deployment acted as a catalyst for a massive sell-off, leaving the economy in ruins. The Iranian government is bracing for a total financial collapse that could render it unable to pay the security forces currently suppressing the urban protests.
The chief justice’s call to avoid the negotiating table has only deepened the market’s panic. Without a diplomatic breakthrough, there is no hope for the lifting of the sanctions that have driven inflation to 60%. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that might target the infrastructure of the oil industry—not to weaken the nuclear program, which was the target in June, but to deprive the political leadership of its last remaining funds.
As internet access remains throttled, the lack of transparency is making the financial crisis worse. Business owners are warning that the 20-day outage limit is approaching, after which the economy may enter a state of permanent damage. The government is bracing for a strike in an environment where it is already defeated on the economic front, leaving only its military hardware as a defense.