The old fear of a domino effect has returned to East Asia, this time with a nuclear twist. North Korea warned on Tuesday that a new submarine deal between South Korea and the United States would trigger a “nuclear domino” effect in the region. The commentary slammed the agreement as a “dangerous attempt at confrontation,” raising the alarm over proliferation risks.
The deal, finalized last week by President Lee Jae Myung, allows South Korea to expand its authority over uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing. These technologies enable the construction of nuclear-powered submarines. North Korea views this as a destabilizing move, predicting it will spark a “hot arms race” among regional powers.
This warning comes at a moment of diplomatic cognitive dissonance. Just one day before the North’s outburst, Seoul proposed military talks to prevent border clashes—the first such offer in seven years. President Lee has offered unconditional discussions, seeking to reverse the hawkish trends of the past. However, the North’s focus on the “nuclear domino” suggests they are looking at the long-term strategic picture rather than short-term border management.
The “nuclear domino” metaphor suggests that South Korea’s acquisition of these capabilities will topple the non-proliferation order. North Korea is arguing that this will lead to a more dangerous and heavily armed region. This narrative attempts to position the North as a victim of the South’s ambition.
North Korea has yet to respond to the proposal for talks. The silence on the diplomatic front, coupled with the dire warnings about the domino effect, suggests that the region is entering a volatile new phase.