President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum puts NATO member Turkey on a precarious tightrope, forcing Ankara to balance its crucial role in the alliance with its significant economic and energy relationship with Russia. As the third-largest buyer of Russian oil, Turkey is directly impacted by Trump’s demands.
The U.S. President has made a total NATO-wide ban on Russian oil the sole condition for imposing new, major American sanctions on Moscow. This “all or nothing” approach leaves no room for exceptions, placing countries like Turkey, which has carefully cultivated its role as a mediator between Russia and the West, in an extremely difficult position.
To make matters worse, Trump’s call for NATO to impose 50-100% tariffs on China could also create problems for Ankara, which maintains important trade relations with Beijing. Agreeing to Trump’s full package would require a complete reorientation of Turkish foreign and economic policy.
Turkey must now navigate between Trump’s uncompromising demands, its own economic needs, and its complex geopolitical strategy. The decision it makes could have far-reaching consequences for its standing within NATO and its fragile economy, making this a critical moment for the nation’s leadership.